Affichage des archives de dimanche, 21 octobre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Oct 21 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 294 publié à 2200Z le 21 Oct 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9661
(N14W64) produced an M2/2n flare at 21/1136 UTC with associated
discrete frequency radio bursts. Analysis in white light of this
region also shows a re-emergence of the delta magnetic
configuration. An optically uncorrelated M1 flare was observed at
21/0518 UTC and an associated Type II radio sweep with a shock
velocity of 536 km/s. Using SXI imagery it would appear that this
flare had occurred in Region 9670 (S18E06). Several C-class flares
were produced from Region 9674 (S09E07) during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 9661 and 9670 remain capable of
producing M-class or isolated major flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A
strong shock was observed at ACE at 21/1614 UTC. This was followed
by a sudden impulse at 21/1645 UTC (measured as 15 nt on the Boulder
magnetometer). The sudden impulse was followed by minor
(21/1500-1800 UTC) and major (21/1800-2100 UTC) storm levels. BZ
was predominantly negative since the arrival of shock up until the
time of issue of this bulletin.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels. The full halo CME
from the X1/2b flare that occurred at 19/1630 UTC from Region 9661
is expected to arrive on the middle of day one of the forecast
period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 22 Oct au 24 Oct
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 21 Oct 224 Prévisionnel 22 Oct-24 Oct 225/225/215 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 21 Oct 191
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/010 Estimé Afr/Ap 21 Oct 025/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 030/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 22 Oct au 24 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 15% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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