Affichage des archives de dimanche, 17 juin 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Jun 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 168 publié à 2200Z le 17 Jun 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Today's largest event was
a C3 at 2242 UTC which was not seen optically. Region 9503 (N14E20)
is currently the largest group on the disk, and shows continued
growth, enhanced plage and occasional brightenings. Region 9501
(S13W11) has also shown growth during the past 24 hours. Region 9502
(S25E05) continues to have an east-west inversion line, but appeared
to be a bit cooler today than previously. Region 9506 (N17E48) has
rotated into view as a beta-gamma group, but was relatively calm and
stable. Two filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours: a 14
degree filament near S27W11, and a 28 degree filament near N30E55.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. There is a slight chance,
however, for an isolated major flare event, particularly from 9503
and 9506.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet
conditions prevailed during the first 15 hours of the period, but
activity increased to unsettled to slightly active between 1200-2100
UTC. Solar wind signatures showed some kind of transient type flow
from 0300-1600 UTC which was accompanied be moderately negative
interplanetary Bz.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field for the
next 24 hours is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a chance
for isolated active periods. Unsettled levels should prevail on the
second day, and activity should drop to quiet to unsettled levels by
the third day.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Jun au 20 Jun
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Jun 205 Prévisionnel 18 Jun-20 Jun 200/200/195 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Jun 172
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Jun 004/007 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Jun 010/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 015/015-010/010-005/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Jun au 20 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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