Affichage des archives de mardi, 10 avril 2001

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 100 publié à 2200Z le 10 Apr 2001

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 9415 (S23W19) produced a long-duration X2/3b parallel-ribbon flare at 10/0526 UTC. This flare was associated with a 4000 SFU Tenflare, Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 14-degree filament disappearance, and a fast full-halo CME. Region 9415 showed decay in its trailer spots, but maintained a strong magnetic delta configuration in its leader portion, where a minor increase in spots was noted. Minor growth occurred in Region 9417 (S08W39). It produced a C6/Sf at 10/1451 UTC. Minor growth was also observed in Region 9425 (S25W49). The remaining regions were simply-structured and stable. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9415 is expected to produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event followed today's X2/3b flare. It began at 10/0850 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near 100 PFU at the close of the period and gradually increasing. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux enhancement was also associated with the X2/3b flare. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event began around 10/1200 UTC and continued as the period ended. Thus far, maximum absorption associated with the PCA event has been estimated at 8.5 dB. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
A major geomagnetic storm is expected during 11 - 12 April in response to halo-CMEs observed on 09 - 10 April. Active to major storm levels are expected during this disturbance with brief severe storm levels possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 13 April as the storm subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the period. The PCA event is expected to end during the latter half of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 Apr au 13 Apr
Classe M80%80%80%
Classe X25%25%25%
Proton90%80%25%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       10 Apr 170
  Prévisionnel   11 Apr-13 Apr  165/165/160
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        10 Apr 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 09 Apr  017/019
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  013/009
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  050/040-050/090-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 Apr au 13 Apr
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif15%15%35%
Tempête mineure25%25%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère45%45%10%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif15%25%35%
Tempête mineure30%30%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère50%35%15%

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