Affichage des archives de lundi, 9 avril 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 09 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 099 publié à 2200Z le 09 Apr 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9415
(S22W07) produced an M7/2B flare at 09/1534 UTC associated with a
1600 SFU Tenflare, Type II and IV radio sweeps, and a full-halo CME.
Region 9415 remained a large, magnetically complex group with a
strong, persistent magnetic delta configuration within the large
leader spot. The remaining regions were simply-structured and showed
no significant changes. New Region 9425 (S25W26) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 could produce another major
flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels as
CME effects gradually subsided. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
began to rise after today's major flare and was gradually increasing
as the period ended. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux enhancement
also followed the flare, but did not reach event levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 10 April. The
CME associated with today's flare is expected to reach Earth during
the early hours of 11 April. Active to major storm levels will be
possible during 11 - 12 April as the CME passes Earth. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux may increase to event levels early on 10
April.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Apr au 12 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 70% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 09 Apr 165 Prévisionnel 10 Apr-12 Apr 165/160/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 09 Apr 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 08 Apr 033/041 Estimé Afr/Ap 09 Apr 018/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 012/015-030/035-025/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Apr au 12 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 20% | 10% |
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