Affichage des archives de dimanche, 8 avril 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 08 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 098 publié à 2200Z le 08 Apr 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
9415 (S21E05) produced no flares during the period, but remained
large and complex with a persistent magnetic delta structure within
its lead sunspot. The remaining regions were simply structured and
stable, including newly numbered Regions 9423 (N21E03) and 9424
(S16E34).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Quiet to unsettled levels occurred through 08/1030 UTC. A
CME-related shock front reached the ACE spacecraft at 08/1034 UTC
followed by a sudden impulse (SI) at 08/1101 UTC (58 nT, as measured
by the Boulder magnetometer). Field activity increased to active to
major storm levels following the SI. The CME source was the X5 flare
of 06 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained enhanced, but slowly decreased through the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Active to major geomagnetic
storm conditions are expected during the first day as CME effects
continue. Unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of
the period. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region
9415 during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 Apr au 11 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 Apr 169 Prévisionnel 09 Apr-11 Apr 165/165/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 Apr 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 07 Apr 017/016 Estimé Afr/Ap 08 Apr 030/040 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 025/030-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 Apr au 11 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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