Affichage des archives de samedi, 7 avril 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 097 publié à 2200Z le 07 Apr 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. A single
C-class X-ray flare occurred. Region 9415 (S21E21) remained the
dominant region on the disk with a minor increase in area and spots.
It remained magnetically complex with a strong delta configuration
within its leader spots. Minor growth was reported in Region 9417
(S08E01), but the region remained a simply-structured bipole. New
Regions 9421 (S15W42) and 9422 (S13E78) were numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm
levels. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 07/1700 UTC,
presumably from the long-duration M5 X-ray flare and halo-CME event
observed on 05 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually
declined, but remained enhanced.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first
two days due to an expected CME passage associated with the X5 flare
of 06 April. The CME is expected to reach Earth around midday
tomorrow. Quiet to active levels are expected on the final day.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9415 during
the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Apr au 10 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Apr 180 Prévisionnel 08 Apr-10 Apr 175/175/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Apr 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Apr 011/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Apr 025/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 025/030-025/030-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Apr au 10 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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