Affichage des archives de vendredi, 30 mars 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Mar 30 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 089 publié à 2200Z le 30 Mar 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate to high. Region 9393
(N17 W30) has produced three M-class flares since 30/0000 UTC. The
region remains large, complex, and threatening to produce more Class
X events.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
high. Region 9393 remains the center of a complex likely to
produce M-Class events with a very good chance of one or more Class
X events over the next three days as the region moves away from
central meridian but remains in a prime location to produce strong
to severe effects at Earth. Over a dozen sunspot groups are
visible and may produce Class M events.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z
Activity in the geomagnetic field has been unsettled the past 24
hours. Some discontinuity was observed at the ACE spacecraft and at
Earth between 30/1800 UTC and 30/1900 UTC. The event appeared to be
small and is likely the result of solar activity prior to 29 March.
The small proton event that began at 29/1000 UTC reached a
maximum flux of 35 pfu in the >30 MeV GOES detector and remains
above 10 pfu today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Effects from CME's from the
events on 29 March are expected to begin early on 31 March. Model
runs predict an earlier arrival at Earth late on 30 March. ACE
energetic protons are rising slowly indicating the disturbance is
still some distance away at 30/2100 UT. Any geomagnetic storm that
results is expected to range from minor to major. The small >30 MeV
proton event in progress is expected to continue its slow decline
with a chance of an enhancement with the passage of the
interplanetary shock. Major activity from Region 9393 may well
produce additional proton events and geomagnetic activity at Earth.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 31 Mar au 02 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 30 Mar 257 Prévisionnel 31 Mar-02 Apr 255/250/245 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 30 Mar 163
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 29 Mar 017/022 Estimé Afr/Ap 30 Mar 014/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 045/050-045/050-025/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 31 Mar au 02 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 40% | 17% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 52% | 50% | 50% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 50% | 50% | 35% |
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