Affichage des archives de jeudi, 29 mars 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Mar 29 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 088 publié à 2200Z le 29 Mar 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9393 (N17W18) produced
an X1/1N event at 29/1015Z. This event had an associated Type IV
radio sweep, a tenflare of 4700 sfu, and a full halo CME was
reported from LASCO/SOHO imagery. This earth-directed CME occurred
at approximately 29/1030Z. Region 9393 also produced numerous minor
M-class events during the period. Region 9393 has shown slight
growth in area since yesterday and is currently over 2400 millionths
in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Region 9393 still has the best potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm. The greater than 10
MeV protons crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 29/1635Z and has
not yet peaked (highest flux observed so far was 18 pfu at
29/2050Z).
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase during the first day of the period to active to
major storms levels due to a CME passage. The passage of a faster
CME, from the X1 event today, may occur later on the first day.
With the passage of the second CME, conditions are expected to be at
active to major storm levels with isolated severe conditions
possible. During the last half of the period, conditions are
expected to decrease to unsettled to active conditions. CME passage
could increase the strength and duration of the 10 MeV proton event
currently in progress. Another proton event is possible, and likely
stronger, if Region 9393 produces another major flare as it transits
the solar western hemisphere.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 Mar au 01 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 Mar 262 Prévisionnel 30 Mar-01 Apr 260/255/250 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 Mar 163
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 28 Mar 019/031 Estimé Afr/Ap 29 Mar 020/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 045/050-045/050-025/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 Mar au 01 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 40% | 20% |
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