Affichage des archives de mercredi, 28 mars 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Mar 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 087 publié à 2200Z le 28 Mar 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9393 (N13E00) once
again produced the most activity with four M-class events during the
period. The first was an M1/Sf at 28/0158Z, the second was an M1/Sn
at 28/0947Z, the third was an M4/Sf at 28/1240Z and the fourth was
an M1/1f at 28/1909Z. Regions 9403 (S13E36) and 9397 (S09E19)
produced upper C-class level events. Region 9393 continued growing
and currently covers an area of over 2200 millionths in white light.
The region is also maintaining a very complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Four new regions were numbered today,
Region 9405 (S13W20), Region 9406 (N25E67), 9407 (N11E64), and 9408
(S08E38).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a
major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm. Minor to major storm
conditions were observed from 28/0900Z to 28/1500Z. An
earth-directed full halo CME was seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery. The
halo occurred at approximately 28/1300Z and was associated with the
M4/Sf event in Region 9393.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with possible
isolated active conditions on the first day. Conditions are
expected to increase during the middle of the period reaching minor
to major storm levels due to a CME passage. Conditions are expected
to decrease towards the end of the period to unsettled to active
levels. There is the possiblilty for a proton event if Region 9393
produces a major flare event.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Mar au 31 Mar
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Mar 274 Prévisionnel 29 Mar-31 Mar 270/265/255 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Mar 162
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Mar 016/018 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Mar 024/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 014/015-030/030-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Mar au 31 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 45% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 25% | 20% |
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