Affichage des archives de dimanche, 28 janvier 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Jan 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 028 publié à 2200Z le 28 Jan 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9313 (S04W64) produced a long-duration M1/1n at 28/1603 UTC
associated with a halo CME. Region 9313 showed significant decay
prior to the flare. Occasional C-class flares occurred during the
rest of the period. The remaining regions were either stable or
declining. New Region 9328 (N06W58) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare sometime during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated
active period occurred during 28/1200 - 1500 UTC. A proton event at
greater than 10 MeV began at 28/2025 UTC following the M1/1n flare
from Region 9313. By the close of the period, the greater than 10
MeV flux reached 23.1 pfu and was gradually increasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels late in the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31
January in response to today's halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end early on 29 January. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the
first half of the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Jan au 31 Jan
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Jan 168 Prévisionnel 29 Jan-31 Jan 165/160/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Jan 174
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 007/004-010/008-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Jan au 31 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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