Affichage des archives de jeudi, 16 novembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Nov 16 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 321 publié à 2200Z le 16 Nov 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. An impressive,
full-halo CME occurred early in the period, but was judged to be
from a source on the far side of the Sun. A C8 X-ray flare occurred
at 16/0040 UTC associated with a weak Type II radio sweep and a CME
that did not appear to be Earth-directed. The source for this flare
was determined to be Region 9231 (S23E30), based on SOHO/EIT images.
Region 9231 showed a gradual increase in spot count and penumbral
coverage, as well as a minor increase in magnetic complexity. New
Region 9235 (N14E63) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce an isolated M-class
flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
high.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first two
days of the forecast period. Field activity is expected to increase
to unsettled to active levels on the third day due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to decline to normal to moderate levels during the latter
half of the forecast period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Nov au 19 Nov
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Nov 154 Prévisionnel 17 Nov-19 Nov 155/160/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Nov 170
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/005 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 007/012-010/010-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Nov au 19 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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