Affichage des archives de jeudi, 12 octobre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Oct 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 286 publié à 2200Z le 12 Oct 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1
X-ray flare occurred at 12/2049 UTC and was in progress as the
period ended. The source of the flare appeared to be Region 9182
(N06W66). Activity was at low levels prior to this flare with
isolated, low-level C-class flares from Region 9182. Region 9182
continued to show a slight mixing of polarities in the vicinity of
its leader spots, but no further development was evident. Minor
growth was noted in Regions 9190 (S18E20) and 9192 (S13W12). Both
regions were small and simply structured. Four new regions were
numbered today: 9194 (S13E60), 9195 (N14W70), 9196 (S31W45), and
9197 (N26E70).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9182 may produce additional isolated
M-class flares. Chances for M-class flare activity are expected to
increase beginning 14 October due to the return of old Region 9169
(N12, L = 080).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The CME from the long-duration
C6/1F flare of 09 October is now expected to arrive by early 13
October followed by active to major storm conditions. Activity is
expected to decline to unsettled to active levels on 14 October as
the CME effects subside. There will be a slight chance for high flux
levels at greater than 2 MeV late in the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Oct au 15 Oct
| Classe M | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Oct 163 Prévisionnel 13 Oct-15 Oct 170/180/195 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Oct 178
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Oct 013/014 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Oct 008/011 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 035/035-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Oct au 15 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 01% | 01% |
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