Affichage des archives de dimanche, 24 septembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Sep 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 268 publié à 2200Z le 24 SEP 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9166 (S11W57)
PRODUCED AN M4/2N FLARE AT 24/0338 UTC, AS WELL AS NUMEROUS C-CLASS
FLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REGION 9169 (N11W09) ALSO PRODUCED
SEVERAL C FLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1F AT 23/2142 UTC.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: 9172 (N12E70) AND 9173 (S13E73).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9169 AND 9166 BOTH HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
MAJOR FLARES AND ASSOCIATED PROTON ACTIVITY, AS THEY TRANSIT THE
GEOEFFECTIVE LONGITUDES TOWARDS THE WESTERN LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE. A LATE PERIOD
INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS WAS OBSERVED DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH
SPEED STREAM EFFECTS FROM A CORONAL HOLE. GREATER-THAN-2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING
LOCAL DAYTIME.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING,
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM EFFECTS THROUGH DAY ONE.
EFFECTS SHOULD MODERATE ON DAY TWO, REDUCING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS BY DAY THREE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 SEP au 27 SEP
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 SEP 225 Prévisionnel 25 SEP-27 SEP 225/220/215 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 SEP 180
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP 018/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 SEP au 27 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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