Affichage des archives de jeudi, 14 septembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Sep 14 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 258 publié à 2200Z le 14 SEP 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION
9166 (S13E71) PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 14/0627Z. LIMB PROXIMITY
IS INHIBITING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THIS REGION, BUT FREQUENT
SURGING AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS SUGGEST A MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION
ROTATING INTO VIEW. REGION 9165 (N13E13) DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. FROM A SIMPLE SMALL THREE SPOT BETA CONFIGURATION
YESTERDAY, THIS REGION EVOLVED INTO A BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP WITH
OVER 20 SPOTS COVERING NEARLY 300 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SLIGHT
GROWTH WAS ALSO NOTED IN REGIONS 9156 (S26W53), AND 9162 (S32W63).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF REGION 9165, AND NEW REGION 9166.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE >10 MEV PROTON
EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 12/1555Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM VALUE
OF 321 PFU OCCURRED AT 13/0340Z. THE EVENT HAS BEEN IN SLOW DECAY
SINCE THE MAXIMUM AND IS CURRENTLY AT 18 PFU. THE PCA THAT BEGAN
NEAR 12/1830Z, ENDED AT 14/1532Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SOON EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. A CME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 12 SEP, M1/2N FLARE WILL LIKELY IMPACT EARLY ON
DAY ONE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF DAY ONE AND
RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE >10 MEV
PROTON EVENT SHOULD END ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH AN ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE EXPECTED CME.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 SEP au 17 SEP
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 SEP 151 Prévisionnel 15 SEP-17 SEP 155/160/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 SEP 177
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP 010/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP 050/045-015/012-008/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 SEP au 17 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 45% | 20% | 10% |
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