Affichage des archives de dimanche, 23 juillet 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jul 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 205 publié à 2200Z le 23 JUL 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9097 (N10E13)
HAS PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT AND REGION 9087 (S11W54) HAS BEEN THE
SOURCE OF SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT NEARS WEST LIMB. LESSER
FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9095 (N25W66), 9090 (N13W20),
AND 9085 (N14W75).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF SEVERAL ACTIVE
REGIONS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO ORGANIZED STRUCTURES NEAR EARTH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ON-GOING PERIODS OF ACTIVITY. THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD
APPEARS TO BE LITTERED WITH IRREGULAR, MINOR FEATURES PROBABLY
ORIGINATING WITH THE CONTINUING SOLAR ACTIVITY OF THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A SMALL PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 23/1320Z WAS DECLARED OVER AT
23/2310Z AS FLUX VALUES HAD DECLINED BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR SUCH
EVENTS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF A MINOR STORM AS REMNANTS OF VARIOUS SOLAR EVENTS CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE AS A
SOURCE IS A LONGER DURATION M3 EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON 22/1117Z WHOSE
IMPACT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE ON 24 JULY. A NEGATIVE POLARITY
CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO SIX DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 JUL au 26 JUL
| Classe M | 85% | 80% | 75% |
| Classe X | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Proton | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 JUL 217 Prévisionnel 24 JUL-26 JUL 210/200/190 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 JUL 190
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL 011/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL 015/018-020/020-015/018
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 JUL au 26 JUL
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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