Affichage des archives de samedi, 22 juillet 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jul 22 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 204 publié à 2200Z le 22 JUL 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. THE MOST ENERGETIC
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M3 CLASS EVENT BEGINNING AT 22/1117Z IN
REGION 9085 (N14W63). THE EVENT WAS COMPARATIVELY LONG LIVED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION. FLARES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN REGIONS 9087 (S12W39), 9090 (N12W07), AND 9095 (N21W55).
THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS ARE 9087 (S12W39), A GAMMA-DELTA, REGION
9090 (N12W07), A BETA-GAMMA, AND 9097 (N06E25), A BETA-GAMMA. NEW
REGIONS HAVE APPEARED AND BEEN NUMBERED AS 9100 (S31E58) AND 9101
(S16E68). A LONG, NARROW NEGATIVE-POLARITY CORONAL HOLE EXTENDS
FROM APPROXIMATELY W35 TO E65 AND BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY N30 TO N45
DEGREES.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE LEVELS. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 22/1320Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 17 PFU
AT 22/1405Z. FLUX LEVELS REMAINED NEAR 10 PFU AT FORECAST ISSUE
TIME. THE PROTON EVENT APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE AT
22/1117Z. AN ASSOCIATED MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF PROTONS WITH ENERGY
GREATER THAN 100 MEV BEGAN AT ABOUT 22/1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 100
MEV INCREASE DID NOT MEET SEC EVENT CRITERIA AND HAD RETURNED TO
NEAR-BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 22/1900Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 23 JUL au 25 JUL
| Classe M | 85% | 80% | 75% |
| Classe X | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Proton | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 22 JUL 251 Prévisionnel 23 JUL-25 JUL 245/235/230 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 22 JUL 189
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL 012/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL 020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 23 JUL au 25 JUL
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Tempête mineure | 13% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 06% | 06% | 06% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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