Affichage des archives de dimanche, 25 juin 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jun 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 177 publié à 2200Z le 25 JUN 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO A
PAIR OF M-CLASS FLARES. THE FIRST WAS AN M2/SF AT 25/0114Z WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM FROM REGION 9042, NOW ABOUT A DAY
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE SECOND WAS AN M1/2N AT 25/0752Z FROM
REGION 9046 (N21W61). THIS REGION SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED A SMALL, MIXED-POLARITY SPOT GROUP.
MINOR GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGIONS 9054 (N12W04) AND 9058
(S14W41). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND SIMPLY-STRUCTURED.
AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED AT NE26 AROUND 25/1200Z. NEW
REGION 9062 (S19E72) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A
GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
BEGAN AROUND 25/1300Z, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE M1/SF LIMB-FLARE
FROM OLD REGION 9042.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 26 - 27
JUNE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. BRIEF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD. FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS
EARLY TOMORROW. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 JUN au 28 JUN
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 JUN 175 Prévisionnel 26 JUN-28 JUN 160/155/155 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 JUN 185
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUN 010/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUN 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUN-28 JUN 018/030-015/020-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 JUN au 28 JUN
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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