Affichage des archives de mercredi, 7 juin 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jun 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 159 publié à 2200Z le 07 JUN 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N20W03) PRODUCED
AN X1/3B EVENT AT 07/1553Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 200 SFU
TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 826 KM/S, AND A WEAK TYPE
IV SWEEP. LASCO/EIT IMAGERY ALSO OBSERVED A FAINT HALO CME WITH
THIS EVENT. EARLIER, REGION 9031 (S31W77) PRODUCED AN M2/1B EVENT
AT 07/0444Z. REGION 9026 RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION WITH 27 SPOTS, BUT HAS DECREASED SOME IN OVERALL AREA.
THE REGION AREA DECREASED FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 MILLIONTHS
YESTERDAY TO 590 MILLIONTHS TODAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE
M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT
THRESHOLD AT 07/1335Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (07/2100Z FLUX AT 25
PFU).
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE, THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS
OF THE PERIOD TO ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE THIRD DAY MAY
FIRST SEE A SHORT DECLINE IN ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
STORMING LEVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE X1/3B
EVENT TODAY.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 JUN au 10 JUN
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | RED | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 JUN 180 Prévisionnel 08 JUN-10 JUN 190/200/210 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 JUN 189
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUN 013/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN 040/045-060/075-025/040
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 JUN au 10 JUN
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 60% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 30% | 20% |
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