Affichage des archives de mardi, 6 juin 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jun 06 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 158 publié à 2200Z le 06 JUN 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THREE MAJOR EVENTS OCCURRED IN
THE PERIOD, ALL FROM REGION 9026 (N20E10). A X1/2B FLARE WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING 560 SFU TENFLARE OCCURRED AT 06/1339UT. THIS EVENT WAS
FOLLOWED BY AN M7/2N EVENT AT 06/1401UT. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS AN X2/3B FLARE AT 06/1525UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A
TYPE II SWEEP (1189 KM/S), A TYPE IV SWEEP, A 2300 SFU TENFLARE, AND
AN 11-DEGREE LONG FILAMENT ERUPTION. A FULL-HALO CME WAS CREATED BY
THIS EVENT AND WAS MONITORED BY THE LASCO/EIT SPACECRAFT TODAY.
REGION 9026 REMAINS A LARGE REGION (800 MILLIONTHS) WITH AN "F" TYPE
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9034
(S10E67).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS ALONG WITH ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A SINGLE
PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT MID-LATITUDES FROM 06/18-2100UT. AFTER
THAT PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD APPEARED TO SETTLE DOWN
APPRECIABLY AND ENDED THE DAY AT QUIET LEVELS. THE D-REGION
ABSORPTION FROM THE INTENSE (X2) X-RAY EVENT EXTENDED TO THE POLAR
CAP REGIONS OF THE DAYLIGHT SIDE OF THE EARTH.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING ON THE SECOND DAY OF THE
PERIOD, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL-HALO CME, AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ON THE THIRD DAY TO MAJOR
STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 JUN au 09 JUN
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 JUN 186 Prévisionnel 07 JUN-09 JUN 185/195/210 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 JUN 189
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN 022/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN 018/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN 015/018-030/035-050/075
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 JUN au 09 JUN
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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