Affichage des archives de lundi, 15 mai 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 May 15 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 136 publié à 2200Z le 15 MAY 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVEN M-CLASS EVENTS WERE
REPORTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/0902UT
FROM REGION 9002 (N18E70). THIS EVENT ALSO INCLUDED A 640 SFU
TENFLARE AND A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). REGION 8993
(S21W72) PRODUCED THREE M1 EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8998
(S14E41) ALSO PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT. THERE WERE TWO UNCORRELATED
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST REGION WAS 8996
(S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1280 MILLIONTHS AND 45 SPOTS. IT HAS SHOWN
AN INCREASE IN GROWTH AND SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS YET TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED:
9003 (S18W40) AND 9004 (N10E61).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUED MULTIPLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS
DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 15 MAY, AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 MAY au 18 MAY
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 MAY 244 Prévisionnel 16 MAY-18 MAY 245/250/250 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 MAY 189
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY 011/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY 010/012-015/015-025/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 MAY au 18 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 70% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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