Affichage des archives de samedi, 15 avril 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Apr 15 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 106 publié à 2200Z le 15 APR 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8955 (S22E20) SHOWED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY
DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARES, TWO OF WHICH REACHED
M-CLASS. THE FIRST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/1018Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 570
SFU TENFLARE AND A PARTIAL-HALO CME. THE SECOND WAS AN M2/1N AT
15/1448Z. ANOTHER FLARE OF NOTE FROM REGION 8955 WAS A C7/1N AT
15/1905Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE. MINOR
GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION 8951 (N12W31). REGION 8948 (S16W76)
PRODUCED ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT CONTINUED TO DECAY.
THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8955 MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHROUNOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 16 APRIL
IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED LATE ON 13 APRIL. ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON 18 APRIL DUE TO THE PARTIAL-HALO CME
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NORMAL TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 APR au 18 APR
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 APR 164 Prévisionnel 16 APR-18 APR 165/165/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 APR 184
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR 018/020-010/012-015/018
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 APR au 18 APR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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