Affichage des archives de mercredi, 5 avril 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Apr 05 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 096 publié à 2200Z le 05 APR 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY C-CLASS FLARES WERE
OBSERVED. THERE ARE 14 SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE DISK, MOST
APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING. REGION 8933 (N18W84) REMAINS
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX AS IT BEGINS ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT. SOHO
SPACECRAFT CORONAL IMAGES INDICATE THAT A CME, WHICH MAY BE
EARTH-DIRECTED, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE C9/2F FLARE FROM THIS REGION
ON 4 APRIL. REGION 8948 (S15E56) APPEARS TO BE A DAO SPOT GROUP
WITH AN EAST-WEST NEUTRAL LINE. REGIONS 8949 (S18E76) AND 8950
(N18W64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE PROTON
EVENT WHICH STARTED AT 04/2055T PEAKED AT 55 PFU AT 05/0930UT AND
CONTINUES IN PROGRESS (CURRENT FLUX IS 20 PFU AT >10MEV). THE
ASSOCIATED PCA BEGAN AT 05/0653UT, REACHED MAXIMUM OF 2.2 DB AT
05/0950UT AND ENDED AT 05/1807UT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 08 APRIL WHEN THE FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM
THE CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE C9/2F FLARE AT 04/1541UT. THE SATELLITE
PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 06 APR au 08 APR
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 05 APR 194 Prévisionnel 06 APR-08 APR 190/185/180 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 05 APR 185
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR 023/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR 009/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR 008/010-008/010-025/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 06 APR au 08 APR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 06% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 11% |
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