Affichage des archives de vendredi, 25 février 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Feb 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 056 publié à 2200Z le 25 FEB 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF AT 25/0919Z FROM REGION 8888
(N36E43). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT BUT WAS
DIRECTED OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. OTHER THAN THIS EVENT, THE REGION WAS
MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8889 (N21E59) SHOWED ITSELF
AS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP AND PRODUCED SMALL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A LARGE NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB AT S13E72
AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8891. THIS AREA WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE
DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WERE ALSO HIGH LATITUDE MASS EJECTIONS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN TO
MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8891,
8889, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, REGION 8888. THERE IS A SLIGHT BUT
GROWING POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8891 AND 8889.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING WERE OBSERVED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD BUT REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE 650 KM/S.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH AROUND
25/1710Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MINOR
STORMING FOR 26 FEB. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE
ON 27-28 FEB. QUIET TO OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THAT PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR A MINIMUM OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 FEB au 28 FEB
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 FEB 210 Prévisionnel 26 FEB-28 FEB 213/215/218 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 FEB 165
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB 020/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB 018/018-012/015-008/013
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 FEB au 28 FEB
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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