Affichage des archives de jeudi, 24 février 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Feb 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 055 publié à 2200Z le 24 FEB 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/0111Z. THERE ARE SOME TENTATIVE INDICATIONS
THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM NEW REGION 8889 NEAR N19E67. THIS
REGION IS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS GROUP BUT FORESHORTENING MAY BE
MASKING ITS TRUE SIZE. A TOTAL OF THREE OTHER REGIONS IN THE EASTERN
HEMISPHERE BECAME VISIBLE BUT, AT THIS TIME, NONE APPEARED LARGE OR
COMPLEX. THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE REGIONS STILL BEHIND THE EAST
LIMB.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE
FROM NEAR EAST LIMB REGIONS IS A POSSIBILITY. ONCE THESE LONGITUDES
BECOME VISIBLE, A BETTER ASSESSMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS AND WAS AT
ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AFTER 24/0300Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY OVER 800 KM/S AND DENSITY DECLINED TO LOW
LEVELS INDICATING THE EARTH IS IMMERSED IN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE SOURCE HOLE ON THE SUN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
ELONGATED THAN LAST SOLAR ROTATION.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 FEB. OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MINOR STORMING ARE LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS CORONAL HOLE
RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO EBB ON 27 FEB WHEN QUIET TO
SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 25
FEB.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 FEB au 27 FEB
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 FEB 192 Prévisionnel 25 FEB-27 FEB 195/197/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 FEB 164
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB 024/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB 025/020-018/018-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 FEB au 27 FEB
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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