Affichage des archives de lundi, 7 février 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Feb 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 038 publié à 2200Z le 07 FEB 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8861 (N08W40) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD, A C4/SF AT 07/1654Z. THIS REGION
WAS ACTIVE THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. WHITE LIGHT GROWTH WAS ALSO IMPRESSIVE,
DEVELOPING FROM 20 MILLIONTHS YESTERDAY TO OVER 200 MILLIONTHS
TODAY. SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IS ALSO EVIDENT. REGION 8858
(N27E27) WAS ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY STABLE, PRODUCING ONLY MINOR
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SINCE THE X1/3B FLARE ON 5 FEB. MODERATE MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY STILL EXISTS BUT LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ANYTIME IN
THE PAST 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE REMAINING
REGIONS.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8858 AND 8861 BOTH HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN ON 5 FEB IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL BE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING SOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 FEB au 10 FEB
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 FEB 182 Prévisionnel 08 FEB-10 FEB 185/190/195 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 FEB 173
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB 021/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB 020/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB 015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 FEB au 10 FEB
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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