Affichage des archives de vendredi, 22 octobre 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Oct 22 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
: : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : SDF numéro 295 publié à 2200Z le 22 OCT 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C4/SF IN REGION 8732 (N20W89) AT 22/0915Z. TWO TYPE II'S
OCCURRED AT 22/0853Z AND 22/1300Z, LIKELY DUE TO THE CME ACTIVITY IN
THE CLUSTER OF REGIONS TRANSITING THE NORTHWEST LIMB. REGIONS 8737
(S15W26) AND 8739 (S13E43) BOTH EXHIBITED GROWTH THIS PERIOD WITH
REGION 8739 PRODUCING A 1F/SF AT 22/1929Z. NEW REGIONS 8740 (N27W83)
AND 8741 (S25E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM
REGIONS 8731 (N12W79) AND REGION 8732, AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST
LIMB. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGIONS 8737 AND 8739.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THIS
STORM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OBSERVED AT
21/0226Z. A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM FOLLOWED THE SI, BUT
CONDITIONS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY AROUND 21/2240Z. A DRAMATIC CHANGE
IN THE IMF BZ TO A STRONG SOUTHWARD ORIENTATION PRODUCED SEVERE
CONDITIONS AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE BEGAN TO WANE
SOON AFTER 22/1200Z. ACTIVE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH ISOLATED MAJOR
STORM PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES. A FAVORABLY POSITIONED
GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLE SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH ALL THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 23 OCT au 25 OCT
| Classe M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 22 OCT 160 Prévisionnel 23 OCT-25 OCT 155/145/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 22 OCT 158
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 OCT 014/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT 055/090 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT 025/040-020/030-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 23 OCT au 25 OCT
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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