Affichage des archives de vendredi, 30 juillet 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Jul 30 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 211 publié à 2200Z le 30 JUL 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8649 (S15W30)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 30/1520Z WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLOWLY. REGION 8651 (N24E36) WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE REGION THIS PERIOD PRODUCING FREQUENT LOW-MID
C-CLASS FLARES. DRAMATIC GROWTH OCCURRED IN THIS REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW MEASURES OVER 500 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT
AREA. REGION 8645 (S25W03) STABILIZED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A
F-TYPE GROUP COVERING 600 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REMAINING
REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8645, 8649, AND 8651 WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES AND WILL BE THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BUT DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS FIRST IMPACTED THE MAGNETIC FIELD AROUND 30/1000Z. ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORMING LASTED THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT MINOR TO
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT MOST STATIONS FOLLOWING
AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVAL AT 30/1948Z. THE SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI)
MEASURED 89 NANOTESLA AND THE GOES-8 SATELLITE UNDERWENT A
MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING BETWEEN 30/2007Z - 2052Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF SEVERE
STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES ON 31 JULY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY MID PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 31 JUL au 02 AUG
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 30 JUL 206 Prévisionnel 31 JUL-02 AUG 205/205/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 30 JUL 161
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL 025/024 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG 040/040-015/015-008/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 31 JUL au 02 AUG
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 35% | 05% | 01% |
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