Affichage des archives de jeudi, 11 mars 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Mar 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 070 publié à 2200Z le 11 MAR 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8483 (S18W61) SHOWED
GROWTH AND FREQUENT SMALL FLARE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING A C8/SF AT
0009Z. NEW REGION 8487 (N17E63) WAS ALSO ACTIVE TODAY AND PRODUCED A
C6/SF AT 2034Z. REGION 8485 (N22E27) GREW SLOWLY AND IS CURRENTLY
THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK, BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER A
COUPLE SUBFLARES.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, HOWEVER,
FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8485, 8484 OR 8483.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AN INITIALLY QUIET FIELD
BECAME MOSTLY UNSETTLED AFTER 11/0000Z AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIOD AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 1200-1500Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS BEGINNING LATE ON
THE 13TH OR PERHAPS ON THE 14TH AS A RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S
FILAMENT ERUPTION. NOTE ALSO THAT THERE IS ALSO AN ENHANCED,
PROBABILITY FOR STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 MAR au 14 MAR
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 MAR 137 Prévisionnel 12 MAR-14 MAR 140/140/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 MAR 142
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR 029/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR 010/012-015/015-020/023
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 MAR au 14 MAR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 15% | 20% |
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