Affichage des archives de mercredi, 10 mars 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Mar 10 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 069 publié à 2200Z le 10 MAR 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8484 (S23E54) PRODUCED A
C3/1F FLARE AT 09/2257UT. THREE ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8485 (N22E40)
IS NOW THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND SHOWED FLUCTUATIONS AND
WEAK SUBFLARE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8477 (S28W46)
INCREASED SIZE TODAY, BUT APPEARED TO BE STABLE. A 45-DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S53E06 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 10/0021Z AND
10/1423Z.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8485, 8484 OR 8477.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A WEAK
SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT ACE AT 10/0040Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN
IMPULSE AT 10/0130Z (MEASURED AS 13 NT ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER).
THE SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS OF MINOR TO MAJOR
STORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM
0300-0600Z. ACE SIGNATURES WERE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORT LIVED BUT
GEOEFFECTIVE TRANSIENT (DURATION OF PREDOMINANTLY NEGATIVE BZ WAS
ABOUT 10 HOURS). CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH QUIET TO UNSETTLED PREVAILING FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE
SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER, FOR AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM TODAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION LATE ON THE
THIRD DAY OR PERHAPS THE FOURTH DAY.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 MAR au 13 MAR
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 MAR 135 Prévisionnel 11 MAR-13 MAR 145/150/155 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 MAR 142
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR 019/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR 030/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR 015/015-010/008-015/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 MAR au 13 MAR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 15% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 15% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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