Affichage des archives de mercredi, 3 mars 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Mar 03 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 062 publié à 2200Z le 03 MAR 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8471 (N29W52) PRODUCED A
C2/SF AT 03/0128Z AND A C4/SF AT 03/0345Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT
DECAY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8476 (N18W22) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT
03/0602Z AND A C1/SF AT 03/1654Z. CONTINUED GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN
THIS REGION AND MINOR MIXED POLARITIES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8475
(N31W10) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES WAS
ALSO VISIBLE IN THIS REGION. BEGINNING AT 03/1841Z, THE MAUNA LOA
CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
FROM NEAR SW20.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8471,
8475, AND 8476. EACH OF THESE REGIONS IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8476 COULD MAKE
IT THE PREDOMINANT FLARE PRODUCING REGION ON THE SUN. OVERALL
ACTIVITY LEVELS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BEGINNING ON 6 MAR AS
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE
PLANETARY K-INDEX REACHED ACTIVE LEVELS IN THE 03/1500-2100Z
INTERVAL. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED APPROXIMATELY 100 KM/S
DURING THE PERIOD AND BZ WAS NORTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL THE PERIOD.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME MODERATE.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
SLIGHT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 06 MAR.
BEGINNING THEN, BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 MAR au 06 MAR
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 MAR 137 Prévisionnel 04 MAR-06 MAR 140/143/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 MAR 143
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR 012/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR 010/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR 008/013-008/009-010/009
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 MAR au 06 MAR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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