Affichage des archives de mercredi, 23 septembre 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Sep 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 266 publié à 2200Z le 23 SEP 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH DUE TO AN M6.9/3B FLARE THAT
OCCURRED IN REGION 8340 (N20W02) AT 23/0713UT. THIS WAS A LONG
DURATION EVENT THAT ALSO PRODUCED A TYPE II AND A TYPE IV SWEEP.
THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT A PROTON EVENT WAS ALSO GENERATED
DURING THIS ACTIVITY. REGION 8340 ALSO PRODUCED A C2 X-RAY FLARE AND
3 OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8344 (S20E09) WHICH PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 23/0038UT AND REGION 8343
(N38E13) WHICH PRODUCED A SINGLE OPTICAL SUB FLARE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE STABLE AND MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8340 CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONTINUED
C-CLASS FLARES AND A POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE OF A PROTON EVENT RESULTING
FROM THE M6 FLARE AND THE ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS THAT
OCCURRED ON 23/0713. PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF THE PROTON EVENT IS EARLY
ON 24 SEPT AT AROUND 0300UT.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 SEP au 26 SEP
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 SEP 143 Prévisionnel 24 SEP-26 SEP 150/150/155 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 SEP 129
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP 020/020-040/040-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 SEP au 26 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 65% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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