Affichage des archives de mardi, 1 septembre 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Sep 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 244 publié à 2200Z le 01 SEP 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N32W90)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 0459Z. REGION 8323 (S23E30) CONTINUED TO
GROW AND IS NOW A LARGE (1230 MILLIONTHS) COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP WITH
A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. THE REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8319 (N19W68) ALSO PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT DID NOT SHOW ANY GROWTH TREND AND HAS
A SIMPLE, BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. THE CONTINUED GROWTH, COMPLEXITY, AND
MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTHS IN REGION 8323, HOWEVER, IMPLY THAT THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS
APPEARED TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM THE HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY FLOW
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, TO A SLOWER, SOMEWHAT HIGHER DENSITY THAT IS
CHARACTERISTIC OF NORMAL QUIESCENT SOLAR WIND. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH A FEW ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY
DAY THREE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 SEP au 04 SEP
| Classe M | 70% | 65% | 65% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 SEP 177 Prévisionnel 02 SEP-04 SEP 170/165/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 SEP 121
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG 012/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP 010/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP 015/015-015/012-005/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 SEP au 04 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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