Visualisation de l'archive de lundi 31 août 1998

Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 243 publié à 2200Z le 31 AUG 1998

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N31W76) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF FLARE AT 1539Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THE REGION ALSO PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8319 (N18W54) CONTINUED TO GROW TODAY, BUT NOT AS RAPIDLY AS YESTERDAY. FLARES FROM THIS GROUP OCCURRED LESS FREQUENTLY THAN YESTERDAY AND CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE GROUP HAS STRONG MAGNETIC FIELDS THAT ARE IN A BETA CONFIGURATION WITH A NORTH-SOUTH INVERSION LINE. REGION 8323 (S21E54) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A LARGE COMPACT GROUP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN A PENUMBRAL AREA NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GROUP. IN SPITE OF THE SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE GROUP IT PRODUCED ONLY A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8307, 8319, OR 8323. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. A QUIET TO UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM BETWEEN 0600-1200Z. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY SOLAR WIND THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, HOWEVER, TRANSITIONED TO A MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWARD DIRECTION (MOSTLY FROM -3 TO -7 NT), DURING THE ENHANCED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY INTERVAL. THE FIELD CONTINUED TO BE ACTIVE FROM 1200-1800Z, BUT APPEARED TO BE CALMING SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE HIGH.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 01 SEP au 03 SEP
Classe M70%65%60%
Classe X20%20%15%
Proton25%20%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       31 AUG 179
  Prévisionnel   01 SEP-03 SEP  180/175/175
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        31 AUG 120
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  015/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 01 SEP au 03 SEP
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif50%45%40%
Tempête mineure20%20%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%10%10%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif40%40%40%
Tempête mineure30%30%30%
Tempête majeure/sévère15%15%15%

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