Affichage des archives de vendredi, 3 juillet 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Jul 03 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 184 publié à 2200Z le 03 JUL 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/0112Z WITH ASSOCIATED
MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A WEAK TYPE IV SWEEP. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR
THIS EVENT WAS REGION 8256 (S24W33) WHICH GREW CONSIDERABLY IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH STILL SMALL IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, THIS REGION
WENT FROM THREE VISIBLE SPOTS YESTERDAY TO 24 TODAY AND EXHIBITED
FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PLAGE FIELD WHILE PRODUCING THREE SMALL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. RECENT MAG MAPS SUGGEST A BETA GAMMA
CONFIGURATION. REGION 8253 (N17W74) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SUBFLARES AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN
QUIET.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION
8256. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ALREADY EXIST IN
THIS REGION AND FURTHER GROWTH IS EXPECTED.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03/00-03Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
BY LATE 4 JUL THROUGH 5 JUL AS A RESULT OF THE C6/SF ON 1 JUL.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 JUL au 06 JUL
| Classe M | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 JUL 128 Prévisionnel 04 JUL-06 JUL 128/130/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 JUL 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 JUL au 06 JUL
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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