Affichage des archives de lundi, 27 avril 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Apr 27 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 117 publié à 2200Z le 27 APR 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8210 (S17E43)
PRODUCED AN X1/2B AT 27/0920Z WITH A STRONG TYPE IV AND 950 SFU
BURST AT 2695 MHZ. THIS MODERATE DURATION EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A
CORONAL MORETON WAVE AND HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION. REGION 8210
REMAINED A SMALL-MODERATE SIZE C-CLASS GROUP. HOWEVER, A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND
LOCALIZED MAGNETIC GRADIENTS WERE HIGH. SMALL REGIONS WERE VISIBLE
NEARING THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WITH REGION 8210 THE PROBABLE SOURCE REGION.
OBVIOUSLY, X-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY DUE
TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS REGION IN WHITE LIGHT. CONTINUED
INCREASES IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY COULD MODIFY THIS FORECAST.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 27/0000-0300Z. THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE SOUTHERN POLAR CORONAL
HOLE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
PREDOMINANTLY HIGH.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE ON 28 APR AS THE END OF THE CORONAL
HOLE STREAM ROTATES PAST THE EARTH DURING THAT PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FOR 29-30 APR IN RESPONSE TO
THE X1 FLARE AND HALO CME MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR
STORMING ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SOMEWHAT ADVANCED FROM PREVIOUS HALO CMES DUE TO A
HIGH LAUNCH SPEED OBSERVED NEAR THE SUN.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 APR au 30 APR
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 APR 091 Prévisionnel 28 APR-30 APR 092/094/096 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 APR 104
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 APR 021/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 APR 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 APR-30 APR 010/015-020/020-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 APR au 30 APR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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