Vaata reede, 18 jaanuar 2013 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2013 Jan 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 18 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Jan 2013IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1707Z from Region 1654 (N07W59). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for M-class flares on day one (19 Jan). Solar activity
is likely to be low on days two and three (20 - 21 Jan).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 18/1850Z. Total IMF reached 17.2 nT at 18/1132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.3 nT at 17/2351Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2057 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected
to remain mostly quiet until late on day one (19 Jan), when the
geomagnetic field increases to quiet to unsettled conditions with a
chance for an active period with the arrival of the 16 Jan CME.
Unsettled to active conditions with a slight chance for a minor storm
period exists early on day two (20 Jan) with the 16 Jan CME. Conditions
begin to decrease to predominately quiet to unsettled levels starting
midday on day two (20 Jan). Conditions are expected to return to
predominately quiet with a possible unsettled period on day three (21
Jan).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Jankuni 21 Jan
| Klass M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Jan 115 Prognoositud 19 Jan-21 Jan 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 18 Jan 122
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Jan 012/015 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 009/012-015/018-007/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Jan kuni 21 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 35% | 55% | 20% |
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