Vaata kolmapäev, 14 november 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Nov 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 319 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Nov 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0404Z from Region 1613 (S23E18). Regions 1610 (S23W36) and 1611
(N13W14) have decayed and now have weak beta-gamma magnetic
complexities. Region 1613 experienced some decay in the penumbra and is
now only considered to be a simple bi-polar region. New Region 1616
(N21E61) was numbered during the period. There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 466 km/s at 14/1631Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 13/2226Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -19.1 nT at 14/0251Z. The
increase in activity was caused by prolonged period of -Bz. A solar
sector boundary crossing appears to have occurred at around 14/0245Z
followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 267 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (15 Nov, 16
Nov, 17 Nov) due to continued effects from the negative polarity coronal
hole followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Novkuni 17 Nov
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Nov 142 Prognoositud 15 Nov-17 Nov 145/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 14 Nov 119
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Nov 010/016 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Nov 023/034 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 011/012-011/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Nov kuni 17 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 35% | 30% | 35% |
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