Vaata teisipäev, 10 juuli 2012 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 192 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Jul 2012

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1520 (S16E19) produced three M-class events during the period, the largest an M2/1f flare at 10/0627Z. The region grew slightly in area and spot count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Other activity included a C4/1f flare at 10/0834Z from Region 1519 (S16W04) and a C8/Sf flare at 10/1345Z from Region 1521 (S22E05). Region 1521 indicated some elongation along its E/W axis while Region 1519 decayed from a B-type group to a single H spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three days (11 - 13 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm intervals from 09/2100 - 2400Z. This activity was most likely a result of residual CME effects from recent flare activity from old Regions 1513 (N17, L=220) and 1515 (S17, L=206). ACE solar data indicated wind velocities steadily increased through the period from 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT while interplanetary field strength ranged between 6 to 12 nT. At about 09/2100Z, the phi angle switched from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive (away) orientation. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (11 - 13 July).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Julkuni 13 Jul
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X15%15%15%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       10 Jul 173
  Prognoositud   11 Jul-13 Jul  170/165/165
  90 päeva keskmine        10 Jul 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Jul  029/038
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 10 Jul  012/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Jul kuni 13 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne10%05%05%
Väike torm01%01%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%15%
Väike torm20%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%

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