Vaata laupäev, 7 juuli 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 189 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Jul 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W63) produced
an X1 at 06/2308Z along with several M-class flares. An associated
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2324Z, along with a 520
sfu Tenflare, Type II (est. speed 1771 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps. The bulk of the material appears to be directed southwest
and is not expected to cause significant activity. New Region 1520
(S15E54) was numbered today and produced an M1 event at 07/0828Z.
The region is considered an Fhc-type group with a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class activity for the next three days
(08-10 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
with an isolated minor storm period from 06/2100-2400Z due to an
extended period of southward Bz. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 07/0400Z and
peaked at 25 pfu at 07/0745Z. The event was still in progress at the
time of this report.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (08 July) due to
effects from the 04 July CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on day two (09 July) as effects subside. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on
day three (10 July) due to possible weak effects from the CME
associated with yesterdays X-class event.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Julkuni 10 Jul
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Jul 158 Prognoositud 08 Jul-10 Jul 160/155/145 90 päeva keskmine 07 Jul 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Jul 014/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/013 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 017/025-012/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Jul kuni 10 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 55% | 25% | 25% |
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