Vaata kolmapäev, 4 juuli 2012 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 04 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 186 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Jul 2012

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515 (S17W23) produced an M5/2b flare at 04/0955Z along with occasional low-level M-class flares including an M2/Sn at 04/0437Z associated with a 150 sfu Tenflare. Spot and penumbral development was evident in the leading half of the region and it retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with the flare activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N17W36) produced an M1/2n flare at 04/1639Z associated with Types II (estimated shock velocity 807 km/s) and IV radio sweeps and a 200 sfu Tenflare. This event was also associated with a CME that may have had an Earthward component, but further analysis will be required to determine potential geoeffectiveness. Region 1513 showed no significant changes and retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 1518 (N09E65) and 1519 (S14E76) rotated into view and were numbered late in the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate through the period (05 - 07 July) with a chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1515.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with active periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were in the 463 to 601 km/s range and IMF Bz was variable in the +6 to -5 nT range. Todays observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux reading (163 sfu) was flare-enhanced. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (05 - 07 July) with a chance for active levels as the CH HSS gradually subsides. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to significantly disturb the field.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Julkuni 07 Jul
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X25%25%25%
Prooton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       04 Jul 163
  Prognoositud   05 Jul-07 Jul  155/160/160
  90 päeva keskmine        04 Jul 121
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Jul  011/011
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  007/008-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Jul kuni 07 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%25%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%15%
Väike torm30%15%30%
Suur-tõsine torm30%10%30%

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