Vaata neljapäev, 7 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 159 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares were
observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was a C9/2n flare
observed at 07/1543Z from Region 1499 (N15W09). This region
produced five other low level C-class flares during the period.
Region 1494 (S18W19) grew slightly and was also responsible for five
low level C-class flares during the period. These regions were
classied as Cai and Dso type groups, respectively, both with
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1497 (S21W44) decreased
in areal extent since yesterday, but remained the largest region on
the disk and was classified as a Dai type group with beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began at unsettled to active levels, decreasing
to quiet levels for the remainder of the period. The solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft decreased from 700 to 600 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/- 4nT while the total field remained around 4
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the forecast period at unsettled levels with a
chance for active conditons on day one (08 June) as coronal effects
wane and a weak CME from 05 June arrives. Quiet conditions are
expected on day two (09 June) followed by a return to unsettled
conditions with a chance for active periods on day three (10 June)
with the potential arrival of a CME from 06 June.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Junkuni 10 Jun
| Klass M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Jun 128 Prognoositud 08 Jun-10 Jun 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 07 Jun 117
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Jun 017/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Jun 007/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 007/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Jun kuni 10 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 15% | 30% |
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