Vaata teisipäev, 22 mai 2012 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 May 22 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 143 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 May 2012

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1484 (N10W43) had slight growth in its intermediate spots. Region 1482 (N14W71) had slight decay in its trailing spots. New Region 1488 (N12E55) was numbered today. At approximately 22/0205Z, a filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant near center disk. STEREO B COR 2 imagery showed a faint CME that appeared to be slightly south of the ecliptic beginning at 22/0609Z. Further analysis is on-going to determine the geoeffectiveness of this CME.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the forecast period (23 - 25 May).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Early on 22 May, solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from approximately 360 km/s to 420 km/s. Temperature and total magnetic field also displayed a slight increase as a coronal hole high speed stream moved into geoeffective position. The geomagnetic field responded with active periods during the intervals 22/0300 - 0600Z and 22/1800 - 2100Z. Minor storm intervals were observed at high latitudes from 22/1200 - 1800Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a continued chance for active periods on day 1 (23 May) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (24 May) as the CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (25 May).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Maykuni 25 May
Klass M10%10%10%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       22 May 121
  Prognoositud   23 May-25 May  120/120/115
  90 päeva keskmine        22 May 116
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 May  007/006
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 22 May  015/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  013/014-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 May kuni 25 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%10%05%
Väike torm15%01%01%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%15%10%
Väike torm20%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm15%01%01%

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