Vaata esmaspäev, 23 aprill 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Apr 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 114 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Apr 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 active regions on the disk, with 5
regions having sunspots. The spotted regions on the disk all
remained rather quiet and stable throughout the period. However,
around plage Region 1461 (N10W19), two C-class events were observed
today with associated Earth directed CMEs.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class x-ray events for the next three
days (24 - 26 April).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the
past 24 hours. Observations made by the ACE spacecraft, around
23/0200Z, indicated the arrival of a CME that lifted off the solar
disk on 19 April. Solar wind velocities increased from 350 - 400
km/s with the total IMF reaching around 18 nT. The Boulder
magnetometer measured a 31 nT sudden impulse at 23/0325Z in
conjunction with the CME arrival here at Earth. From then on, active
to minor storm levels were observed due to multiple periods of
sustained negative Bz.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for a
minor storm on day 1 (24 April) as effects from the CME wane and a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves in. Quiet to active
levels are expected on day two (25 April) as the effects of the CH
HSS continue. An increase to quiet to minor storm levels are
expected on day three (26 April) as the two CMEs, observed earlier
in the period, are expected to become geoeffective.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Aprkuni 26 Apr
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Apr 142 Prognoositud 24 Apr-26 Apr 140/140/135 90 päeva keskmine 23 Apr 112
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Apr 016/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 012/018-008/012-011/018
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Apr kuni 26 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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