Vaata kolmapäev, 18 aprill 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Apr 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 109 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Apr 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. New
Region 1463 (S26W36) produced several C-class and optical flares,
the largest a C8/Sf at 18/1239Z. An associated CME became visible in
STEREO COR2 imagery at 18/1309Z. Further analysis will be conducted
to determine effectiveness as imagery becomes available. Region 1463
also produced a C5 flare at 18/1706Z associated with Type II (est.
speed 621 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. No STEREO or LASCO imagery
was available for this event. Further analysis will also be
conducted on this event when imagery is available.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (19-21 April).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The increase in activity was due to a slight increase in
solar wind speeds (reaching approximately 475 km/s) and extended
periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (19 April). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day two (20 April) due to an
anticipated Solar Sector Boundary Crossing. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is expected on day three (21 April).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Aprkuni 21 Apr
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Apr 122 Prognoositud 19 Apr-21 Apr 120/120/120 90 päeva keskmine 18 Apr 112
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Apr 008/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Apr 008/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 004/005-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Apr kuni 21 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 30% | 10% |
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