Vaata reede, 9 märts 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Mar 09 2210 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
**********CORRECTED COPY********** SDF number 069 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Mar 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 1429
(N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z. Associated with this
event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a
full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z. The
CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2
imagery. Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area
was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. A new
spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432
(N18E69). This new region is too close to the limb to accurately
determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced
a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from
Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to
continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07
March CME. At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more
magnetically connected polarity. Bz continued to be negative for
several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar
wind speed over 600 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with
major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z.
Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z
is ongoing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at
07/0405 is ongoing.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early
on day 1. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm
periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane.
Early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME associated with
todays M-6 flare is expected to become geoeffective. Active to
severe storm periods are expected with this event. Unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible
on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are expected to slowly dissipate.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Markuni 12 Mar
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Prooton | 99% | 99% | 60% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Mar 146 Prognoositud 10 Mar-12 Mar 150/150/150 90 päeva keskmine 09 Mar 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Mar 021/028 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Mar 046/073 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 015/022-033/070-017/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Mar kuni 12 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 50% | 25% |
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