Vaata pühapäev, 19 veebruar 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Feb 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 050 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Feb 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 1422
(N15E02) produced a C1/Sf flare at 19/0851Z. This region developed
rapidly on the disk as a 10 spot D-type group. The remainder of the
disk and limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs
detected.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(20 - 22 February), particularly from developing Region 1422.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through about
19/0200Z. For the following 6 - 9 hours, active to minor storm
conditions were prevalent. This increase in activity was due to
effects from a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The
period ended with predominately quiet conditions with isolated high
latitude active intervals. During the period, ACE solar wind
velocities steadily increased from about 325 km/s, reaching a peak
of about 500 km/s at 19/0700Z. Through the remainder of the period,
wind speeds gradually decreased to 400 km/s. At 19/0220Z, the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum
southward extent of -14 nT while Bt reached a maximum of 16 nT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(20 - 22 February).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Febkuni 22 Feb
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Feb 105 Prognoositud 20 Feb-22 Feb 110/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 19 Feb 131
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Feb 003/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Feb 013/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 004/005-003/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Feb kuni 22 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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