Vaata kolmapäev, 18 jaanuar 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jan 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 018 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Jan 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. At 18/1912Z, an impulsive
M1/1n was observed from Region 1401 (N16E27). At 18/1230Z, Region
1399 (S23E17) produced a B9 x-ray event. A slow-moving,
partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the SSE limb, first observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1325Z. Model output indicated the
potential for Earth impact beginning late on 22 January. New Region
1407 (N17E13) emerged on the disk as a B-type group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the
next three days (19 - 21 January).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind velocities, as
measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decreased during the past 24
hours from a high of about 450 km/s to a low of near 375 km/s by the
end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the majority of day
one (19 January). By late on 19 January, and through day two (20
January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods. This increase in activity
is due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result of
the 16 January CME. By day three (21 January), the field is
expected return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Jankuni 21 Jan
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Jan 148 Prognoositud 19 Jan-21 Jan 150/150/155 90 päeva keskmine 18 Jan 144
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 006/006-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Jan kuni 21 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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