Vaata laupäev, 3 detsember 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Dec 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 337 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Dec 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S22E16) has been the most active region on the
disk, with multiple C-class events. Region 1363 also continues to
grow in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity
(beta-gamma). New Region 1366 (N17E65) was numbered early in the
period as it rotated onto the visible disk. Multiple CMEs have been
observed in the past 24 hours, but none appear to have any Earth
directed components.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(04-06 December).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Slightly elevated activity was observed at high
latitudes, with an isolated period at minor storm levels, do to the
arrival of a transient CME. Signatures from the ACE spacecraft
indicated this transients arrival around 02/1800Z with a slight
increase in the lower energy protons, an increase in solar wind
speeds coupled with elevated solar wind density, and finally an
increase in total IMF intensity around 8 nT. The Penticton 10 cm
flux is estimated today at 160 sfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(04-06 December).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Deckuni 06 Dec
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Dec 160 Prognoositud 04 Dec-06 Dec 165/165/160 90 päeva keskmine 03 Dec 143
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-005/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Dec kuni 06 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Väike torm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Väike torm | 08% | 07% | 07% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 02% | 01% | 01% |
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