Vaata teisipäev, 6 aprill 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 Apr 06 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 096 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Apr 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays flare activity
consisted of a single B1 X-ray event at 0402Z from Region 1060
(N26E32). In addition a small, possibly earthward directed CME was
observed in the Stereo coronagraph images and was associated with
disk activity in the SOHO EIT images beginning at about 0113Z, just
north of Region 1061 (N14W24). Region 1061 appears to be growing
slowly.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, but there is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region
1061.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of
the day, with the exception of an interval of minor to major storm
levels between 0000-0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft showed a slow trend of increasingly negative Bz
consistent with continued influence of yesterdays CME-driven
activity. Peak negative Bz values reached -8 nT at about 1250Z.
Solar wind velocity gradually decreased during the past 24 hours and
was about 550 km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active for the first day (07 April) due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity levels are expected to
be unsettled to active on the second day (08 April) due to
persistence as well as possible effects from todays CME.
Predominantly quiet levels are expected on the third day (09 April).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Aprkuni 09 Apr
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Apr 078 Prognoositud 07 Apr-09 Apr 082/085/085 90 päeva keskmine 06 Apr 083
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Apr 028/049 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Apr 025/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 015/020-012/015-005/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Apr kuni 09 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 25% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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