Vaata kolmapäev, 23 aprill 2008 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2008 Apr 23 2203 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 114 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Apr 2008IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 992 (N13W17) has been quiet and stable and
is a small, simple C-type sunspot group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially unsettled but after 0300Z
increased to predominantly active levels. In addition there were two
minor storm periods; the first from 0600-0900Z and the second from
1500-1800Z. ACE real-time solar wind data show a slow increase in
solar wind speeds at the beginning of the period followed by a
marked increase in speed and temperature around 0400Z. The magnetic
field observations at ACE also indicate a gradual increase as well
as an extended period of mostly southward Bz from 0200Z to about
1700Z. The signatures are consistent with a co-rotating interaction
region followed by a high speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed
remains elevated with values around 640 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods for the first day (24 April) as the high speed stream
persists. Activity is expected to decline to predominantly unsettled
for the second day (25 April) and to predominantly quiet for the
third data (26 April).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Aprkuni 26 Apr
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Apr 071 Prognoositud 24 Apr-26 Apr 070/070/070 90 päeva keskmine 23 Apr 072
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Apr 020/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 015/015-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Apr kuni 26 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 35% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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